Here is electionista’s brief guide to the US presidential election.
Over 100 million Americans will vote. Polls close at different times across the country with Kentucky and Indiana the first to close at 2300 GMT and Alaska the last at 0500 GMT (on Wednesday).
Poll closing times in key states:
Virgina 0000 GMT
North Carolina 0030 GMT
Ohio 0030 GMT
Florida 0100 GMT
New Hampshire 0100 GMT
Pennsylvania 0100 GMT
Colorado 0200 GMT
Wisconsin 0200 GMT
Iowa 0300 GMT
Nevada 0300 GMT
Each state is called some time after the polls close, and depending on how close the results are, a winning candidate is expected to emerge between 0300 and 0700 GMT (on Wednesday).
There are 538 electoral college votes up for grabs, with at least 270 needed to win.
Average of national polls:
TPM: Obama 48.9%, Romney 47.9%
RealClearPolitics: Obama 48.8%, Romney 48.1%
Averages in key swing states (RCP data):
Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Obama: +0.3
North Carolina (15) - Romney: +3
Ohio (18) - Obama: +2.8
Florida (29) - Romney: +1.8
New Hampshire (4) - Obama: +2
Pennsylvania (20) - Obama: +3.9
Colorado (9) - Obama: +0.6
Wisconsin (10) - Obama: +4.2
Iowa (6) - Obama: +3
Nevada (6) - Obama: +2.8
Based on these, the electoral college tally would be: Obama 303, Romney 235
FiveThirtyEight forecasts in-line with these averages handing Obama 315.2, Romney 222.8; Obama chance of winning 92%, Romney chance of winning 8%
Road to the White House - likely combinations.
There are 512 possible paths to the White House, yet these are the most likely combinations:
If Romney doesn’t win Ohio, he would need Colorado, Florida, Virginia, Wisconsin AND Iowa or New Hampshire. If Romney wins Ohio, he would need Florida, Virginia and one other swing state.
If Obama wins Florida, he would likely be past the needed 270 mark. If he doesn’t win Florida, the President would need Ohio AND Virginia or Wisconsin or Colorado or Iowa and New Hampshire.
These combinations visualised.
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