On March 2 we released via our weekly briefing (if you’re not signed up, you can register for free here) our first “prediction” for the 2014 European Parliament elections. Our next figures will be released end April, again to briefing subscribers first.
The prediction is based on an average of polls adjusted for their performance at previous elections and on each member state’s voting system.
S&D (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats): 206 seats(27.4%)
EPP (European People’s Party): 204(27.2%)
ALDE (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats): 72(9.6%)
GUE/NGL (European United Left/Nordic Green Left): 59(7.8%)
ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists): 45(6%)
Greens/EFA (Greens/European Free Alliance): 42(5.6%)
EFD (Europe of Freedom and Democracy): 31(4.1%)
NI/others (non-attached members): 92(12.3%)
You can find the latest polls by country, and a list of parties and affiliations, in our always up to date Google doc. The prediction is based primarily (wherever data is available) on European Elections polls.
Snap analysis by country:
Austria - socialists SPÖ and right-wing FPÖ neck-and-neck for top spot, ÖVP (EPP) third, liberals NEOS and Greens battling for fourth spot. Other parties unlikely to win seats.
Belgium - is holding general elections on the same day as the European vote. The EU result is likely to fundamentally trace the national vote, with S&D, Greens, ALDE parties expected to win the lion’s share of seats, followed by the CD&V (EPP) and then others.
Bulgaria - centre-right GERB to win the most seats. Just about.
Croatia - centre-left and centre-right to share the spoils.
Cyprus - DISY (EPP) largest party, followed by left-wing AKEL and DIKO (S&D).
Czech Republic - Two horse race between social democrats ČSSD and liberals ANO for largest party, EPP parties (combined) and communist party KSČM neck-and-neck for the final place on the podium. ODS (ECR) has been performing slightly better in more recent polls.
Denmark - ALDE stronghold. Among the others, Social Democrats are neck-and-neck with right-wing Dansk Folkeparti following recent government troubles.
Estonia - ALDE 3, S&D 2, EPP 1.
Finland - EPP, ALDE and EFD to occupy the podium.
France - centre-right UMP and right-wing Front National are set to battle it out for largest party. The Socialist Party on similar levels to 2009, the Greens could see their seats halved.
Germany - the CDU/CSU is on relatively similar levels to federal election voting intention polls, as is the SPD. The FDP (ALDE) will drop all the gains made at the 2009 elections. Based on polls, about 10% of seats will go to “other” parties.
Greece - left-wing SYRIZA tops all recent polls. If these polling figures are confirmed, socialist PASOK is likely to drop into single-digits from 36.6% in 2009, while one in ten is set to vote for far-right Golden Dawn (from 0.5% in 2009).
Hungary - FIDESZ (EPP) will dominate.
Ireland - Labour on about 10%, most seats to be relatively evenly divided up between the main parties and others.
Italy - Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party likely to emerge as the largest party, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement neck-and-neck for second spot. Northern League and a list supporting the European Left’s Alexis Tsipras are the only other contenders almost certain to win seats. The New Centre-Right is currently hovering around the 4% threshold. A new list supporting ALDE’s Guy Verhofstadt was set to launch this week, and has yet to be polled.
Latvia - The left to win most of the seats here, followed by Greens and EPP.
Lithuania - S&D and ALDE for top spot, EPP and EFD for bronze.
Luxembourg - no polls have been released since last year’s election. For now we’re basing our prediction on those results.
Malta - evens between the Labour Party and the Nationalist Party.
Netherlands - right-wing PVV largest party, but ALDE largest group in terms of seats. EPP, S&D, the left, ECR, and possibly the greens, all winning seats here.
Poland - though with diverging margins, PiS (ECR) leads across polls in Poland. EPP parties second, S&D third.
Portugal - the Socialist Party expected to top polls, but it will be neck-and-neck with the two governing EPP parties for who wins the most seats.
Romania - socialists PSD comfortably ahead, PNL (ALDE) and the EPP parties to battle it out for second spot.
Slovakia - socialist SMER by far the largest party, but the S&D is likely to share most of the seats with the EPP.
Slovenia - SDS (EPP) largest party, socialists SD second, PS (ALDE) and DeSUS (Democratic Party of Pensioners) neck-and-neck for a place among the medals.
Spain - centre-right PP is likely to just edge out socialist party PSOE to top spot, but the big story is set to become the rise in support for all other parties - above all left-wing IU and centrist UPyD who are both expected to see their support triple from 2009 - and, by contrast, an all time combined low for the two parties that historically dominate Spanish politics at a national level.
Sweden - the election will be particularly important in light of the general election that takes place later this year. The Social Democrats are ahead in the polls and are likely to top the result both in terms of popular support and seats. EPP parties are set to take second spot followed by ALDE, greens and the left. Right-wing Sweden Democrats are performing less strongly in European polls compared to their general election voting intention figures, but are likely to win at least one seat.
UK - Labour is set to win the most seats, while the Conservatives and UKIP (EFD) will battle for second spot. The Conservatives have never come below second in a national vote. The Liberal Democrats are on course to lose more than half their seats based on current polls.
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