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electionista #EP2014 prediction I

On March 2 we released via our weekly briefing (if you’re not signed up, you can register for free here) our first “prediction” for the 2014 European Parliament elections. Our next figures will be released end April, again to briefing subscribers first.

The prediction is based on an average of polls adjusted for their performance at previous elections and on each member state’s voting system.

S&D (Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats): 206 seats(27.4%)
EPP (European People’s Party): 204(27.2%)
ALDE (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats): 72(9.6%)
GUE/NGL (European United Left/Nordic Green Left): 59(7.8%)
ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists): 45(6%)
Greens/EFA (Greens/European Free Alliance): 42(5.6%)
EFD (Europe of Freedom and Democracy): 31(4.1%)
NI/others (non-attached members): 92(12.3%)

You can find the latest polls by country, and a list of parties and affiliations, in our always up to date Google doc. The prediction is based primarily (wherever data is available) on European Elections polls.

Snap analysis by country:

Austria - socialists SPÖ and right-wing FPÖ neck-and-neck for top spot, ÖVP (EPP) third, liberals NEOS and Greens battling for fourth spot. Other parties unlikely to win seats.

Belgium - is holding general elections on the same day as the European vote. The EU result is likely to fundamentally trace the national vote, with S&D, Greens, ALDE parties expected to win the lion’s share of seats, followed by the CD&V (EPP) and then others.

Bulgaria - centre-right GERB to win the most seats. Just about.

Croatia - centre-left and centre-right to share the spoils.

Cyprus - DISY (EPP) largest party, followed by left-wing AKEL and DIKO (S&D).

Czech Republic - Two horse race between social democrats ČSSD and liberals ANO for largest party, EPP parties (combined) and communist party KSČM neck-and-neck for the final place on the podium. ODS (ECR) has been performing slightly better in more recent polls.

Denmark - ALDE stronghold. Among the others, Social Democrats are neck-and-neck with right-wing Dansk Folkeparti following recent government troubles.

Estonia - ALDE 3, S&D 2, EPP 1.

Finland - EPP, ALDE and EFD to occupy the podium.

France - centre-right UMP and right-wing Front National are set to battle it out for largest party. The Socialist Party on similar levels to 2009, the Greens could see their seats halved.

Germany - the CDU/CSU is on relatively similar levels to federal election voting intention polls, as is the SPD. The FDP (ALDE) will drop all the gains made at the 2009 elections. Based on polls, about 10% of seats will go to “other” parties.

Greece - left-wing SYRIZA tops all recent polls. If these polling figures are confirmed, socialist PASOK is likely to drop into single-digits from 36.6% in 2009, while one in ten is set to vote for far-right Golden Dawn (from 0.5% in 2009).

Hungary - FIDESZ (EPP) will dominate.

Ireland - Labour on about 10%, most seats to be relatively evenly divided up between the main parties and others.

Italy - Matteo Renzi’s Democratic Party likely to emerge as the largest party, Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia and Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement neck-and-neck for second spot. Northern League and a list supporting the European Left’s Alexis Tsipras are the only other contenders almost certain to win seats. The New Centre-Right is currently hovering around the 4% threshold. A new list supporting ALDE’s Guy Verhofstadt was set to launch this week, and has yet to be polled.

Latvia - The left to win most of the seats here, followed by Greens and EPP.

Lithuania - S&D and ALDE for top spot, EPP and EFD for bronze.

Luxembourg - no polls have been released since last year’s election. For now we’re basing our prediction on those results.

Malta - evens between the Labour Party and the Nationalist Party.

Netherlands - right-wing PVV largest party, but ALDE largest group in terms of seats. EPP, S&D, the left, ECR, and possibly the greens, all winning seats here.

Poland - though with diverging margins, PiS (ECR) leads across polls in Poland. EPP parties second, S&D third.

Portugal - the Socialist Party expected to top polls, but it will be neck-and-neck with the two governing EPP parties for who wins the most seats.

Romania - socialists PSD comfortably ahead, PNL (ALDE) and the EPP parties to battle it out for second spot.

Slovakia - socialist SMER by far the largest party, but the S&D is likely to share most of the seats with the EPP.

Slovenia - SDS (EPP) largest party, socialists SD second, PS (ALDE) and DeSUS (Democratic Party of Pensioners) neck-and-neck for a place among the medals.

Spain - centre-right PP is likely to just edge out socialist party PSOE to top spot, but the big story is set to become the rise in support for all other parties - above all left-wing IU and centrist UPyD who are both expected to see their support triple from 2009 - and, by contrast, an all time combined low for the two parties that historically dominate Spanish politics at a national level.

Sweden - the election will be particularly important in light of the general election that takes place later this year. The Social Democrats are ahead in the polls and are likely to top the result both in terms of popular support and seats. EPP parties are set to take second spot followed by ALDE, greens and the left. Right-wing Sweden Democrats are performing less strongly in European polls compared to their general election voting intention figures, but are likely to win at least one seat.

UK - Labour is set to win the most seats, while the Conservatives and UKIP (EFD) will battle for second spot. The Conservatives have never come below second in a national vote. The Liberal Democrats are on course to lose more than half their seats based on current polls.

electionista pro subscribers also received county-by-country projections. electionista pro is a curated media and influencer monitoring and intelligence tool. If you’re interested in finding out more about an electionista pro subscription visit electionista or drop pro at electionista dot com a line.


How MPs Tweeted in 2013

Here is our 2013 round up of UK MPs’ activity on Twitter.

There are now 461 MPs on Twitter, 47 more than this time last year. You can find and follow the full list here and our lists page also includes lists by party.

10 Most Followed MPs on Twitter:

1.(=) @David_Cameron - 545,174 followers (+352,716)
2.(=) @Ed_Miliband - 276,778 (+94,381)
3.(=) @WilliamJHague - 194,542 (+75,383)
4.(+2) @georgegalloway - 168,770 (+66,774)
5.(+2) @nick_clegg - 143,299 (+45,266)
6.(-1) @tom_watson - 135,447 (+27,061)
7.(+1) @edballsmp - 109,449 (+39,032)
8.(+1) @grantshapps - 73,082 (+12,994)
9.(+1) @CarolineLucas - 70,092 (+20,728)
10.(NE) @George_Osborne - 67,502 (+67,502)

10 Most Active MPs on Twitter (that tweeted the most during 2013):

1. @timfarron (16910 tweets)
2. @julianhuppert (11712)
3. @stellacreasy (11652)
4. @georgegalloway (10732)
5. @Mike_Fabricant (10331)
6. @tom_watson (10134)
7. @jreedmp (9960)
8. @TomHarrisMP (9922)
9. @GregMulholland1 (8179)
10. @GwynneMP (7784)

The 10 topics MPs most tweeted about:

1. Labour - 5486 Tweets
2. Conservatives - 2937
3. Tax - 2808
4. Work - 2538
5. David Cameron - 2510
6. Schools - 2373
7. Energy - 2004
8. EU - 1766
9. Homes - 1618
10. NHS - 1549

The 10 MPs most mentioned MPs in the tweets of UK media and journalists:

1. @Ed_Miliband (6871 mentions)
2. @David_Cameron (4856)
3. @edballsmp (3383)
4. @George_Osborne (3101)
5. @WilliamJHague (2482)
6. @DouglasCarswell (1988)
7. @tom_watson (1853)
8. @nick_clegg (1601)
9. @grantshapps (1471)
10. @stellacreasy (1443)

And with that we wish you all a wonderful Christmas and New Year!


How German MDBs interact on Twitter

Over the course of 180 days through to August 13, German MDBs and parties tweeted 109,446 times.

A breakdown by party:

CDU/CSU 27,552 

Greens 26,812 

SPD 24,979 

Die Linke 15,884 

FDP 14,219

18,584 of these Tweets contained mentions of MDBs and parties. This chart visualises mentions within and between parties. The thicker the lines the greater the number of mentions.


The Greens are the most “conversational” party. The highest volume of mentions unsurprisingly occurs around the three largest parties, but rather interestingly while most conversations take place between members of a same party, there are more mentions of opponents than interaction between (natural) coalition partners.

The 10 MDBs that most mention other MDBs and parties in their Tweets are:

@Volker_Beck (Greens)

@DoroBaer (CSU)

@monikalazar (Greens)

@kahrs (SPD)

@sven_kindler (Greens)

@UlrichKelber (SPD)

@Hermann_Ott (Greens)

@W_SK (Greens)

@Halina_Waw (Die Linke)

@larsklingbeil (SPD)

28% of MDBs on Twitter have never mentioned another MDB in a Tweet.

You can find a list of all MDBs on Twitter at @electionista/mdbs and on our lists page lists by party are also available. A special thank you to our friends at @Pluragraph for their help in compiling the lists.

You can view and download a higher resolution version of the chart here.


Over one million people follow MPs on Twitter

1,224,902 people follow MPs on Twitter.

The most followed party (with the most followed MPs) is the Conservatives whose MPs are followed by 637,338 people. Labour follows with 576,304 people, and the Liberal Democrats with 200,176 people.

These are all unique figures/followers - total number of people (cleansed of duplicates). A simple sum of all MPs’ followers, not excluding duplicates, adds up to 3,628,982.

The 10 most followed MPs on Twitter:

@David_Cameron 280916 followers

@Ed_Miliband 204818

@WilliamJHague 138369

@georgegalloway 122764

@tom_watson 119180

@nick_clegg 106194

@edballsmp 81113

@grantshapps 64988

@CarolineLucas 55017

@ChukaUmunna 49894

*@Dmiliband (125,972) is excluded from the list.

All data was gathered on Thursday 11 April.


A new

Last week we announced V2 of electionista pro. Today, we’re delighted to release the latest update of

- a beautiful new interface

- photos and videos most shared by politicians and political media around the world

- a markets channel (simply type markets in the search bar) to see the latest relevant tweets and most shared content by financial experts and influencers around the world.


New channels on electionista pro

Last week we released V2 of electionista pro. Today we rolled out two new channels:

1) Markets - following the financial community globally on Twitter and filtering their tweets by over 3000 queries covering all equities, commodities, bonds, currencies and local markets.

2) UK Local - following all local councillors, local authorities and local and regional press in the UK. 

Both channels of course encompass the full suite of electionista pro functionality, including the ability to search within a channel, find the most shared links, the most retweeted tweets around queries, and lots more.


Introducing electionista pro V2

We’re delighted to announce the release of V2 of electionista pro.

electionista is the only service in the world that follows politics, elections and political trends on Twitter globally, in over 100 countries and more than 50 languages. All the world’s politicians, governments, media and top commentators on one platform. 

The latest version includes:

- a beautiful new tabbed interface for 1) Tweets, 2) Content and 3) Data. When you search for a country, within a country or globally across all countries, relevant tweets, the most shared content and data - most Retweeted posts, most mentioned and most active users, trending topics and volume of conversations - relating to your search query are each organised in a dedicated page.

The V2 interface also enhances user experience on mobile and tablet devices, and integrates infinite scroll in the tweets page.


- most shared photos and videos by politicians, governments and political journalists around the world.


- the ability to download data by various time intervals - hour, day, week, month.

And, of course all the existing features are still there, it’s just that now we’re not only making following politics globally simple, but more beautiful.

If you’re an electionista pro user the new version will be there next time you log in (you may need to refresh your cache). If you would like to find out more about the service and subscribing drop us an email at info [at] electionista dot com or tweet us @electionista.


A Guide to #Italy2013 Coalitions on Twitter

By Saturday January 13 coalitions, manifestos and coalitions need to be finalised ahead of Italy’s general election (February 24-25).

Here is a brief guide to the coalitions’ (as they currently stand) Twitter’s presence:


Coalition leader: @pbersani

Parties/lists: @pdnetwork, @sinistraelib, @CentroDemDirLib, @PartSocialista 

Party/list leaders: @NichiVendola, @NenciniPsi


Coalition leader: Silvio Berlusconi (not on Twitter, but @forzasilvioit is his “personal network”)

Parties/Lists: @ilpdl, @LegaNord2_0, @FratellidItaIia, @Lista3L

Party/list leaders: @angealfa, @maroni_leganord, @GiorgiaMeloni, @Storace, @g_tremonti, @Ignazio_LaRussa


Coalition leader:  @SenatoreMonti

Parties/Lists: @scelta_civica, @udctw, @_futuroeliberta

Party/list leaders: @gianfranco_fini, @Pierferdinando

Rivoluzione Civile

Coalition leader: @AntonioIngroia

Parties/lists: @MovArancione, @rivcivile, @verditalia

Party/list leaders: @Idvstaff, @AngeloBonelli1


Coalition leaders: @OGiannino, @beppe_grillo

Parties/Lists: @Mov5Stelle, @Fare2013, @Radicali

All the above accounts can also be found in one Twitter List at

If you’re aware of anyone missing on the list - tweet us @electionista

On electionista Italy, in addition to all coalitions, parties and leaders, you can follow Italian MPs, candidates, political journalists, media and key commentators.

Hashtags to follow the election campaign: #Italy2013, #ItalyVote, #Italy, #elezioni2013.


How UK MPs Tweeted in 2012?

Here is our 2012 round up of UK MPs’ activity on Twitter.

There are now 414 MPs on Twitter. You can find and follow the full list here and our lists page also includes lists by party. 

10 Most Followed MPs on Twitter:

@David_Cameron - 192458 followers

@Ed_Miliband - 182397

@WilliamJHague - 119159

@DMiliband - 109136

@tom_watson - 108386

@georgegalloway - 101996

@nick_clegg - 98033

@edballsmp - 70417

@grantshapps - 60088

@CarolineLucas - 49364

10 Most Active MPs on Twitter (that tweeted the most during 2012):

@KarlTurnerMP - 12956 tweets

@AngusMacNeilMP - 12256

@jreedmp - 10695

@julianhuppert - 10145

@timfarron - 8432

@stellacreasy - 8291

@tom_watson - 7687

@TomHarrisMP - 7486

@GregMulholland1 - 6516

@KerryMP - 6506

She didn’t end 2012 as an MP, but it’s worth mentioning that @LouiseMensch would have made the top 10 with her 7689 tweets.

The 10 topics MPs most tweeted about:

Work - 5379 tweets

Tax - 5124

NHS - 4993

David Cameron - 4742

Schools - 4539

Police - 4154

Homes - 3831

BBC - 3635

Family - 2848

Cuts - 2832

For those wondering, the EU was mentioned 2157 times.

The 10 MPs most mentioned in the tweets of UK media and journalists:

@tom_watson - 1433 mentions

@edballsmp - 874

@NadineDorriesMP - 836

@Ed_Miliband - 821

@ChrisBryantMP - 538

@WilliamJHague - 536

@David_Cameron - 533

@stellacreasy - 491

@TomHarrisMP - 412

@theresecoffey - 338

And with that we wish you all a wonderful Christmas and New Year!


Announcing electionista for Windows 8

Following on from the great reception for our global election dashboard we’ve launched the electionista app for Windows 8.  It’s built for laptops, the new generation of Win8 phones and, of course, the new Surface tablet and all touch screen Windows 8 Devices.

electionista is unique because it’s the only app that tracks every politician and all political media on Twitter globally.  That means the live tweets, trending news stories and data showing the trends, most active and most mentioned political Twitter accounts in the world, country by country.  The app automatically updates when it launches to show you the next upcoming election on the global calendar (right now it’s Slovenia) and features an interactive calendar to show you when and where people are choosing their next government.  

Developing for Windows 8 worked well for Tweetminster - “Our systems are built around generating JSON feeds, so integrating them into apps is mostly an interactive design process, i.e. working out how to make the interface work on multiple touch-enabled devices and deliver the right functionality for news surfing. The app has got a lot of cool new options for sharing and searching the content which are unique to Windows 8 devices, so we’re really pleased with the results - it’s smooth and transparent, there’s nothing to get in the way of enjoying the content, which is our goal when building apps.” (Andrew Walker, Chief Innovation Officer).

The electionista app is the easy way for news hungry political animals to get the latest in world politics delivered directly to their laptop, phone and tablet, with latest news integrating straight into their home screen.  Get it free from the Windows Store here.